Facebook's audience and consumption growth is now generating substantial and rising display advertising revenue, with consensus estimates of $2 billion in 2010, up 160% YoY, and it will overtake Google on this count this year
The social network's growing position as the centre of the internet experience is enabling it to become a platform for other services, such as e-commerce, making it an increasing strategic threat to Google, as well as other players in the digital media
More importantly, like Google before it, Facebook’s scale and function has the power to disrupt the digital e-commerce and marketing models built over the past decade
CPW Europe had a difficult quarter, with volumes falling 9% and like-for-like revenue 2%, due to continued prepay weakness and the shift to 24 month contracts in the UK
The US business was again very strong, growing volumes at 26%, and this strength is likely to continue due to an acceleration in store roll outs
Keeping the European business flat in 2011/12 will be a challenge, but the US business is likely to more than make up for this at the group level
H3G Europe improved its revenue growth and margins in 2010, albeit not by as much as its headline figures claimed. It is currently growing at 5% with EBIT at around breakeven
Given that its parent company is likely to want to keep EBIT positive, it is likely to be constrained on future investment in subscriber growth, limiting its potential going forward
The UK was particularly strong, with dramatically improved contract subscriber growth, and margins improving despite this, driven by the completion of the T-Mobile network share implementation helping margins and the smartphone revolution playing to the company’s 3G network strengths
European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative
While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France
The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months
French ISPs are about to enter a disruptive four month window of penalty-free broadband subscriber churn, triggered by the VAT rise on IPTV
SFR has followed Iliad’s Free by offering unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls at the risk of ARPU decline
We expect Free’s market share to stabilise, whilst those of SFR and Bouygues should rise to the detriment of Orange
CPW’s European volume and revenue growth dropped in the December quarter, but this was largely due to the higher mix of prepay in the Christmas period, with underlying trends (strong contract, weak prepay) unchanged
US volume growth surged to 34% as the company continued to roll out standalone stores in malls and shopping centres, and there appears to be plenty of growth to come
Looking forward, the UK business is likely to suffer from the longer handset contracts that have been rolled out by the UK mobile operators over the last two years, but continued strength in the US is likely to more than make up for this
UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000
Carphone Warehouse’s distribution side was very strong in revenue terms in the September quarter, with an underlying (ex-currency) growth of 11%
The company is right to be cautious about the Christmas trading environment, although we believe that it will continue to do well in relative terms at least, and even has a fighting chance of hitting the distribution revenue guidance made back in April
Fixed line revenue growth was hit by churn and spin down at AOL UK, and churn in the non-broadband base. Fixed line EBITDA grew encouragingly as cost savings from LLU kicked in, but overall financial performance was marred by the cost of free laptop and retention offers at AOL UK
Distribution connection numbers were strong (+9%), especially on contract (+21%), despite a reduction in store expansion and the consumer slowdown which is affecting other consumer electronics businesses
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband