By the end of 2013 there will be more iOS and Android devices in use than PCs. Google is using Plus and Android to reposition itself to take advantage of this, extending its reach and capturing far more behavioural data

We believe a helpful way to look at Google is as a vast machine learning project: mobile will feed the machine with far more data, making the barriers to entry in search and adjacent fields even higher

For Google, Apple’s iOS is primarily another place to get reach: we see limited existential conflict between the two. However, mobile use models remain in flux, with apps and mobile social challenging Google’s grip on data collection

The amount and distribution by time of day of TV viewing, as well as the PSB group viewing shares have remained notably stable over the last ten years in which the major shift from analogue to digital transmissions has occurred and timeshift/catch-up viewing has become commonplace.

The topline trends nevertheless mask significant age-related under-currents of change, which have seen a large loss of younger audiences and sharply ageing profiles for BBC1, BBC2 and ITV.

Whilst the more youth-oriented Channel 4 has avoided the ageing profile effect, it faces its own challenge of averting audience decline, as it finds itself at the sharp end of change among younger adults and faces declining support among older viewers.

Apple’s iTunes will add free-to-the-user online and mobile radio to the platform in the autumn of 2013, meshing music purchase with enhanced tools for discovery.

iTunes Radio also meshes with Match, the cloud-based music storage and retrieval utility sold for $24.99/year, whose users will enjoy ad-free online and mobile radio.

The main casualty of iTunes Radio is likely to be #1 US internet station Pandora, which this week launched the next phase of its battle to win the better royalty terms of commercial radio.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on reques

Google Play, the digital content platform from Google for Android devices, has added a music subscription service to the sale of music, ebooks, videos and apps.

All Access, available only in the US initially, benefits from integration in Google Play, the default storefront on Android smartphones and tablets (excepting Amazon’s Kindle Fire). All Access isn’t available on Apple devices, in the majority in the US, severely limiting its reach.

Google’s main objective with Google Play is to support the Android ecosystem and attract and retain Android device owners, and thus OEMs and developers. We expect Google Play to operate slightly above break even like iTunes.

In January 2013, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) cleared Google of anticompetitive practices in its core search and advertising business – a corresponding European antitrust investigation is pending, but looks set to take a (slightly) stricter stance on Google.

The FTC’s closing of the search bias investigation is key to Google’s strategy to integrate and expand its general and vertical search products, such as its e-commerce channels Google Shopping and Google Maps, with direct positive revenue implications.

The European Commission will most likely not impose search bias remedies later this year that significantly impact Google’s current practices, and we therefore have a positive outlook on additional vertical search revenues materialising.

Apple’s numbers have got so good they’re bad: after growing at over 50% for two years, relative revenue growth has, inevitably, slowed. The products remain very strong, and direct competitors continue to have little impact. (Apple’s mobile phone market share has never been higher, for example.) However, the premium phone market itself, which the iPhone dominates, is at a potential tipping point.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

Facebook has announced Home, an Android app that takes control of your phone, replaces the home screen with your Facebook newsfeed and relegates any competing social services to, it hopes, an afterthought.

At launch, Home will be available to at most 20% of Facebook’s mobile base. It is an interesting tool to lock in core users and drive up their engagement, but can only be part of Facebook’s mobile strategy.

Facebook has strong mobile user and revenue growth, but has not ‘won’ social on mobile as it has on the desktop, and competing services have drawn hundreds of millions of users. It is not yet clear Facebook will win, or even that there will be a single big winner.

German unbundlers are in decline, unable to match cable for price or bandwidth, or to invest in new fibre networks. Vodafone, the second largest unbundler, must choose between consolidating and divesting Merging with Kabel Deutschland would deliver fixed line synergies – with high execution risks. But, based on the French and Spanish experiences, we doubt that a quad play strategy (synonymous with a price war) would generate value Mobile operators’ fixed line ventures are also in decline elsewhere in Europe, but cable is not always to blame, with pure play fixed line altnets also tending to outperform them, suggesting that genuine cross-selling advantages are marginal at best