Revenues and profits continue to crash at the directory giant as local and small business expenditure shifts to cheaper online media

We believe Yell’s challenges may be less about share of voice, and more about how to absorb the pace of structural change – and to operate its business effectively from a much lower top-line

Tough conditions in all territories – UK, US, Spain and Latin America – have accelerated structural change, but Yell has some advantages over the start-ups, search algorithms and social networks that surround it

Growth in advertising for TV and the largest popular newspapers has not spread to local media, with regional press suffering declines in recruitment, auto and retail in 2010 despite colossal falls the previous year

Operating profit recovery in 2010 demonstrates firm management cost control, although the largest businesses have suffered 20% decline in annual profits since 2006

Publishers have engaged in various brand extensions, yet digital and other revenues remain stubbornly low, suggesting the scale of opportunity is destined to be a fraction of that from the sector’s recent past – and that consolidation is an industry inevitability

National newspaper advertising revenues should be up 6-8% year-on-year in 2010, with ‘popular’ titles in particular attracting display ads from national retailer brands

Local and regional press advertising revenues will fall by about 6% year-on-year, mainly on the continued decline of recruitment classifieds

Publishers are exploring more efficient printing, new digital models, and staking a claim on e-commerce

We forecast UK online advertising to grow by 8% CAGR to £5.1 billion by 2014, representing approx. 33% of total advertising spend, overtaking press

Search is the main growth engine, which we predict will reach £3.1 billion in 2014, due to its appeal and value to advertisers as a sales and lead generation tool

Growth in spend on social media and video networks will push online display to just over £1 billion by 2014; whilst classifieds will grow to £840 million

DMGT has sold a 75% stake in its London title, the Evening Standard, to Russian investor Alexander Lebedev for £15 million

The deal helps DMGT reduce its losses at the title, thought to be up to £20 million a year

While the sale also underlines the publisher’s commitment to reducing its reliance on volatile newspaper assets, we think it highly unlikely that the crown jewels – the Daily Mail and the Mail on Sunday – will come to market, although the story could be different for regional division Northcliffe

Yell announced this week that full year sales growth (to March 2008) in its UK operations would be 2%, sharply down from the previously forecast 3%, due to “toughening market conditions” since the start of 2008

Rumours that Google was acquiring Yell emerged at the end of last week, but we doubt the search giant would be interested in purchasing a traditional media company, particularly not one predominantly in print

DMGT’s recent upbeat trading update showed improvements on the hefty declines in advertising of 2005 and 2006. At least part of the lift is thanks to DMGT’s national titles gaining share from other mid market and quality titles, and we are discounting a general print advertising recovery

Yell UK is the dominant supplier of Classified Advertising Directory Services (CDAS) in the UK. Its principal competitor is BT but, as a natural monopoly, it is regulated, and has just undergone a sector review lifting the price caps currently in place. What does the future now hold for Yell, and more generally for CDAS, which has been the only growth sector in print classified advertising since 2004?