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Although 3G mobile networks are being rolled out aggressively in Japan, instead of the promised land of increased voice and data revenue driving higher profits, revenue is stagnant and costs are rising. In this report we examine why and consider the lessons to be learned for European operators.

 

 

 

The take-off of local loop unbundling in H2 2003 enabled France to record the highest rate of broadband market growth in 2003 in Europe. This torrid pace of growth continued in Q1 2004 due to retail price declines and 50% rises in ISP ad budgets year-on-year. Free, Neuf, Cegetel, Telecom Italia, Tiscali are offering LLU-based DSL offers, bundled in most cases with telephony.

In this report we update our regular survey of UK mobile users, with the latest survey conducted in April 2004. We look at user penetration, handset replacement rates, camera phone ownership and use, and also the market share prospects and camera phone usage for the mobile network operators.

 

 

 

Fastweb

Fastweb is an interesting altnet break-out story from Milan, Italy. Fastweb has a two-tiered network composed of a fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network and the more recent DSL network based on fully unbundled Telecom Italia lines. Taking advantage of Italy's relatively low prices for unbundled local loops, Fastweb is among the leading unbundlers in Europe, with Free based in France (Iliad [2004-02]). Fastweb anticipates passing 6 million households (25% of the total) by 2006 and 10 million by 2010.

Ofcom is about to issue a decision that will have a major impact on the way the UK broadband market develops. It concerns the pricing of wholesale DSL connections. The decision will be an important first signal to the market on how the newly-established Ofcom intends to deal with quasi-monopolies like BT.

Broadband took off in 2003 reaching 3.1 million cable and DSL connections at the end of the year. We anticipate a further massive shift to broadband in 2004, but mainly to the benefit of DSL suppliers. DSL has twice the geographic coverage of cable, and Tiscali's recently introduced 150k DSL service is undercutting NTL's own mid-band service in areas of overlap. This report examines the intense struggle for market share being waged by ISPs.

Handset sales in the UK and the rest of Europe have reportedly been strong over the last few months, with camera phones selling well. In this report we look at our most recent survey of UK mobile handset owners to investigate whether this is a result of stronger consumer demand, or whether purchasers have been responding to cheaper offers from mobile operators.

 

 

 

Iliad

We write regularly about Free, the French ISP that is leading Europe in unbundling local loops. Through its proprietary technology, the Freebox, Free now offers cheap DSL access, free VoIP (voice over Internet) telephone calls and a limited TV offer, over unbundled local loops. Iliad, Free’s parent company, is preparing for flotation and the company has released details about its performance and plans.

Vodafone's strategic direction appears little altered since its change of CEO earlier this year. In this report we look at the company’s overall global positioning and prospects.