Service revenue growth remained firmly negative at -1.0% in spite of inflation of +2.1%, as competition remains intense and pricing power weak.
Operators are guiding to a 2025 EBITDA performance that is broadly in-line with, or weaker than, their 2024 performance, with SFR choosing to abstain from guidance this year.
In-market consolidation cries are getting louder, with France, Italy and Germany the most obvious candidates.
2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.
In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.
We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.
Most regulations within the TAR26 condoc were continuations of the previous pro-investment regulations, albeit with little progress made on copper withdrawal, no extra help for the struggling altnets and a number of unexpected twists at the margin.
Within the detail, the most significant hit is the return of cost-based price controls to some leased line charges, and across all of the proposed changes, Openreach has on balance fared worse than retail ISPs, albeit at a scale that is manageable within the BT Group.
Ofcom showed no inclination to offer any extra help to the struggling altnet industry, regarding its inefficiencies as being its own (and its investors’) problem, with consolidation the only sensible path forward for most.
BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach
The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer
The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT
On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Salesforce and Adobe.
With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.
This is the edited transcript of Session Three, covering: consolidation in the telecoms sector; fixed-mobile convergence; and the future of the fibre industry. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.
Our country is facing a deepening social crisis this winter, with millions of people living in poverty or destitution, including 1 million destitute children.
Multibanks offer an emergency service for families fighting poverty, providing surplus essentials like nappies, toilet rolls, toothpaste and school uniforms, donated by businesses like Amazon and others, reducing waste, and shipped to beneficiaries.
Co-founded by Gordon Brown and Amazon UK, supported by many donors and volunteers, two multibanks serve each of Fife and Wigan, the next will serve Wales, and the aim for 2024 is to reach six multibanks in the UK.
A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.
However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.
Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.
On behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, AlixPartners seized the press assets of the Barclay family to recover debts, threatening to sell the Telegraph Media Group and the Spectator in a range of £500 to £600 million.
The least likely scenario is for AlixPartners to select another national news group as the buyer of the Telegraph, due to barriers to clearance from public interest considerations and possibly also at the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).
If AlixPartners considers that UK trade buyers are unlikely to be considered suitable buyers for the Telegraph, then the range of buyers reduces to non-UK trade buyers or wealthy individuals seeking a trophy asset.
The games industry, with the potential to become the world’s largest media and entertainment sector by revenue, is undergoing profound transformation.
The consolidation of major developers is a response to a revenue model pivoting toward subscription, with direct consequences for those already in the subscription space: film, TV and music.
A technology-led creative medium, with an audience approaching three billion gamers, is seeing its franchises become more valuable and useful than ever.
At this year’s Mobile World Congress, new hardware was stuck in beta, but glasses-free 3D screens impressed.
The metaverse confronted its identity crisis in a deflated hype cycle: blockchain and NFTs withdrew to the shadows, leaving the focus on enterprise and industrial applications.
AI: while aware of the (numerous) issues, discussions occasionally skated over issues of effectiveness, data inputs, the role of humans, and conditions for adoption.