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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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ITV has enjoyed another very positive start to the year, with a repeat 11% increase in adjusted EBITA, this time mainly due to strong NAR growth, further helped by a 20% increase in Online, Pay & Interactive revenues

Broadly flat ITV Studios revenues reflected timing and special factors, including negative changes in the exchange rate. Now the leading US independent producer of unscripted programmes after three further acquisitions, ITV has set its sights on growing scale in scripted content

Promising new opportunities at home and abroad look to be opening up for the ITV broadcast/online business through the expansion of ITV Studios. Nor has this gone unnoticed at a time of growing consolidation in the age of convergence, as indicated by Liberty Global’s acquisition of Sky’s 6.4% stake in ITV

The UK population is ageing, with over-40s in the majority for the first time in 2014/15. Since 2002, Baby boomers (young in the 1960s) and Gen X (1970s) have increased their shares of the UK’s wealth, disposable income and consumer expenditure.

Baby boomers and Gen X remain very firmly engaged with traditional media alongside the internet – older demographics are much more multimedia than younger demographics, who are disengaged with traditional media to the benefit of digital media.

Baby boomers and Gen X are engaged consumers, inclined to switch brands and adopt technology, and brands that optimise exposure to them through traditional media will gain share.

In second of a two part report examining the current state of the UK consumer magazines sector we focus on magazine brands’ prospects in the rapidly evolving digital and mobile landscape.

Mobile presents a particularly fundamental challenge to magazines, but should also act as a spur for publisher innovation; we assess the degree of digital engagement from publishers thus far and consider the risks in ecommerce and opportunities in video.

We look in detail at Good Housekeeping’s digital transformation strategy to be rolled out in the second half of 2014, which combines digital utility solutions with bold innovations in its heritage brand. More publisher experimentation is a pressing necessity; the industry appears to have stalled on digital innovation and new competitors such as Houzz and Wiggle are occupying the digital ground in traditional magazine territory.

 

EE reported impressive operating figures, with 4G net adds accelerating sharply from an already impressive base and mobile contract net adds leading the UK market

Service revenue growth was respectable, but did not improve on the previous quarter despite the surge in premium 4G customers, although profitability did continue to improve as further synergies were realised

EE will maintain a 4G coverage lead over the other operators into 2015, and the base is likely to continue to migrate to 4G in large numbers, but it remains to be seen if it can convert this into improvements on the top line

In the first of a two part report examining the current state of the UK consumer magazines sector we focus on the performance of print as paid circulation decline accelerated, down 10% year-on-year in 2013.

We consider the display advertising performance of both consumer and B2B magazines across print and digital and provide forecasts through to 2017. While print display advertising decline in consumer magazines accelerated to 8% in 2013, digital growth was 12%, and digital advertising is now 15% of total display revenues.

The market is increasingly diverging between rapidly declining titles and differentiated (often high value) titles with older readerships where circulation falls have been less severe. We expect this gap to continue to widen as an improving economy provides some respite for stronger titles over the next two years.

2014 saw a fall in profits as BSkyB absorbed the £217 million step-up in the annual cost of PL rights and invested £60-70 million in accelerating growth in its connected offerings, but with strong underlying revenue growth pointing to a resurgence of profits in 2015

The annual results release was over-shadowed by the news of BSkyB’s proposal to create Sky Europe through the acquisition of 21C’s shares in Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia, where it sees great opportunities for revenue growth and cost synergies

Taking on a large increase in debt to finance the acquisitions when the next PL auction is about to strike sends out the message that BSkyB management is confident about the state of its business, has a clear view about the value of PL rights, and will not be side-tracked from the pursuit of its broader strategic objectives

Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth improved slightly in the June quarter, by 0.6ppts to -7.9%, largely due to it running out of revenue to lose in some segments, but contract net adds were disappointing, with the company still losing ground competitively

Investment in Project Spring is surging with capex double the prior year and 4G coverage accelerating, which is very encouraging for the medium term, but it will be some time before this pays off in revenue and profit terms

Recent in-market mobile consolidation may result in more investment-focused competitive environments, despite the best efforts of regulators to sustain anti-investment price-based competition, but these too will take some time to emerge

The commercial non-PSB sector saw strong growth in share of total TV viewing of close to 40% as the multichannel TV homes universe doubled in the 10 years between the launch of Freeview in October 2002 and completion of digital switchover in October 2012, and even higher 50% growth in SOCI (share of commercial impact) thanks to the higher commercial airtime quotas of the non-main PSB channels

Even during the growth years, non-PSB channels that were present in 2003 felt a squeeze on viewing share and suffered losses as result of numerous channel launches that added to the long tail (Squeeze 1), and strong growth in the PSB families (Squeeze 2), which saw the total PSB share among the Top 25 channels in multichannel TV homes rise from less than 80% to over 90% between January 2003 and January 2014

Today, both the PSB and non- PSB commercial channel groups face the challenge of internet connectivity and increasing population of portable screens (Squeeze 3), and they are experiencing similar rates of decline. Yet, even if overall trends look the same, non-PSB viewing trends show significant variation by channel group and genre, to be explored further in Part 2

TalkTalk’s June quarter results revealed solid subscriber trends, with broadband, fibre, line rental and TV net adds all either matching or slightly improving upon the previous quarter

Revenue growth dipped down on the previous quarter (3% vs. 5%), but the price increases in May/June have yet to have a full quarter’s effect, and the company remains confident in its full year guidance of at least 4%

Churn dropped again on the previous quarter, and the company makes a strong case that its triple play strategy should reduce it further, but the big test will be whether it can continue the trend over the rest of the financial year