The value of the domestic rights of major European leagues is falling due to the declining competitive intensity between broadcasters.
The Premier League’s new rights deal extends its lead, while Serie A faces a 10% fall in revenue next season and Ligue 1 struggles to get a flat fee.
Sky and DAZN have cemented their status as Europe’s top football broadcasters. Amazon has refocused to one game per week.
The Premier League will earn 3.5% more per year from its domestic rights for 2025- 29 than today, enough to maintain the gap with rival competitions.
Sky will pay 7% more for as many as 70% more games and cement the prominence of its Premier League coverage, while the Saturday 3pm slot could host the Women’s Super League.
TNT Sports secures its premium profile and Amazon shifts its focus to the Champions League.
Interest in women’s football is unprecedentedly high, with record attendances, TV audiences and importantly participation.
Investment into the Women’s Super League is critical to the long-term success of the game. Strong broadcast partnerships must continue to play a vital role.
WSL viewing is low but increasing. Currently, it is a cost-effective filler for Sky, and good for the BBC’s profile. Rights value should rise but the WSL needs broadcasters more than they need the WSL.
CEO Bob Iger has announced that Disney is now in a "building" phase—indicating that the strategic turnaround is complete—however, upcoming breakeven of streaming products owes much to cuts on programming spend
With the rest of Hulu soon to be acquired, Disney looks as if it is pulling out of India—this will make the company's presence outside of the US even more peripheral
In the UK, Disney+'s advertising-supported tier is now live, however, there are forces at play that limit Disney's ability to execute its tiering strategy as effectively as its biggest streaming competitor
Unable to match Netflix, financially-pressed Hollywood studios are cutting content output and reassessing the DTC model
Price rises are being forced through, however for challengers this is asking a lot from subs, who don’t see an improvement in product or usage
The corporate landscape is fluid—loss-making DTC platforms and revenue-plunging linear channels are candidates for M&A
The Premier League has launched its first competitive rights auction since 2018, offering broadcasters a longer four-year cycle and 70 more live games.
Sky could reduce costs by cutting down on one weekly slot, but we expect it to fight for four packages, consistent with its history of prioritising the prominence of its Premier League coverage.
Competitive tension may be the strongest between TNT Sports and DAZN.
Paid sharing and "price optimisation" are returning clear benefits for Netflix, with healthy subscriber growth (+8.8 million, up to 247 million) and an 8% YoY increase in revenue ($8.5 billion) in Q3. However, success of the advertising tier remains slow
In the UK, Netflix is growing revenues and ARPU, and although it is now a challenge to grow the subscriber base, there is a clear and large group of non-paying users that are now being targeted
Netflix's per household engagement is materially higher than its direct competitors. However, this is plateauing and has implications for revenue levers such as advertising impacts and price rises
Warner Bros. Discovery is grappling with declining legacy cable revenues and its $48 billion debt burden. DTC losses have attenuated but de-leveraging will be trickier post-2023 as many of the easier cost-savings have been achieved.
The US launch of its DTC offering, Max, attempts to dovetail IP from across Warner Bros., alongside Discovery's food, lifestyle and documentary programming, and soon, CNN. Adding sports may prove more challenging.
In Europe, WBD’s rational strategy would be to maintain a mixed distribution strategy, agreeing exclusive deals for its DTC platform with incumbent aggregators such as Sky.
A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.
However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.
Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.
The three planks of Netflix's strategy to stoke growth are beginning to pick up pace: pricing optimisation, charging of non-paying users and advertising are returning benefits, if at different rates. For Q2, Netflix announced growth of 5.9 million subscribers (+8% YoY) with revenues growing but at a slower rate ($1.83 billion, +2.7% YoY)
Netflix's advertising tier remains predictably peripheral. However the restructuring of its product offering and an influx of potential new subscribers who find themselves kicked out of other accounts could result in the company beginning to present to advertisers what they really want: viewers that they cannot reach easily elsewhere, if not yet at scale
The published draft Media Bill does not appear to present major issues for Netflix from a compliance standpoint, however, a clearer understanding of what "appropriate prominence" for the PSBs means is needed to calculate the impact on the streamer's access to viewers