Sky Songs will shutter on 7 February 2011, ending a brand extension experiment that probably cost parent BSkyB some £5 million end-to-end

A PC-based ad-free subscription service, Sky Songs failed to offer the mobility and exclusive content that music fans are most willing to pay for

Spotify’s reported 750,000 European customers as of November 2010 have moved the subscription side closer to breakeven, while the ad-supported side bleeds on

 

US recorded music sales continued to slide in H1 2010 (-9% year-on-year for physical and digital formats (excluding ringtones), on a track equivalent basis). The UK recorded music market has been stronger than the US in recent years, and H1 2010 was no exception (down -1.5%)

Music major revenue declines on recorded music are being partly offset by growing licensing fees paid by music streaming services, as well as artist and merchandising services under 360 degree contracts

High margin music publishing revenues remain the pillar of music major profitability. These declined in H1 2010 due to the delayed impact on current quarterly results of the advertising recession in 2008/09, and we expect the advertising bounceback to be reflected in future results

 

This report provides our annual assessment and forecasts for the recorded music market on the one hand, and the music publishing industry on the other hand. The reason for our dual focus is the key role played by mechanical revenues generated by the sale of recorded music formats in revenues of the music publishing industry, despite their decline since 2000

Revenues from performance (licensing fees from the use of music in broadcasts, music piped in shops or performed live) and synchronisation (music licensed for adverts and TV/film) have proved more resilient. Performance in particular was affected by the severe advertising recession in the music publishing industry’s core markets in 2008/09, whose impact we anticipate will still be felt in 2010

On the whole, however, music publishing revenues should recover and stabilise in our forecast period to 2014.

US digital music sales continue to perform well, despite press reports to the contrary, with the average weekly volume of tracks sold up 75% in 2006, supported by steady sales of iPods

Television advertising revenues fell by nearly 7% and radio advertising by more than 4% in 2006 according to latest market estimates. We expect declines of around 4% for both media in 2007

iPod volumes hit a record 21.1 million units sold in the key Christmas quarter, but year-over-year quarterly revenue growth declined again to 18% (from 29%) due to lower prices for all iPods and consumers’ drift to low priced flash memory based players (iPod Shuffle). Apple’s push on the iPhone limits the iPod’s future development and hence this segment’s future revenue growth

This update on the prospects for the global recorded music market in the period to 2012 reveals the depth of the industry's woes from steep declines in CD sales in most major markets. Rising sales from downloads and ringtones could stabilise overall sales by 2009 at around $23 billion, far from the peak of $45 billion achieved in 1997. Declining CD volumes are among the principal factors limiting growth of music publisher revenues to a CAGR of 2.2% over 2006-2012, despite continued strong growth of performance revenues from live events and broadcast media, including the internet

iPod revenue (quarterly, year-on-year) declined for the first time. Even though unit sales were up 24% year-on-year, the average iPod price was down 20%. Apple group revenue growth is increasingly dependent on Mac sales and new product launches, like Apple TV (March 2007) and the iPhone (in June 2007)