Homepage

In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology

This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet

A video transcript of Claire’s presentation and the debate on the session’s subject of “Competitive pressures on the press and the pressures on journalism”, may be accessed on the site of the Leveson inquiry, at www.levesoninquiry.org.uk

Internet advertising rose strongly in H1 2011, according to the latest IABUK/PwC figures, increasing 13.5% YoY compared to 1% growth in spend on other media

Search grew 12.6% YoY while display was up 18.6%, in line with our forecasts, but classifieds slowed, up just 3% YoY, with recruitment and other sectors stagnating

Our internet advertising forecasts for 2011 and 2012 remain unchanged at 12% and 13% respectively

Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning

The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time

Apple’s new ‘Siri’ voice assistant looks very impressive as a USP. If it works, and spreads, it will join apps as a structural problem for Google, drawing people away from web search

The UK is now entering a period of intense discussion of the regulation and ownership of news outlets. In this context it is revealing to look at a case study of news viewing online

Livestation is an online service which aggregates several dozen TV news channels and makes them available online. Two of the most prominent are Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya. These channels experienced explosive growth during the ‘Arab Spring’ events, and this was reflected in the statistics for access to their online streams, which we analyse here

In the course of these events, the live video streams for Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya went from 150,000 and 50,000 monthly uniques to 3.3m and 1.3m. Their audience online switched from a tiny base of largely expatriate viewers outside the Arab world to millions of viewers in the Arab world. Even after the most dramatic events subsided, traffic remains 10 times what it was in late 2010

Jeremy Hunt is pressing ahead with plans to inject television into the local media ecosystem, the latest in a series of attempts by successive governments to promote local news provision

This presents a challenge to local media, threatening to fragment consumption and intensify the competitive environment in perennially difficult times, but in certain areas these pressures will be attenuated

A ‘community’ model may allow local TV services to survive in areas where advertising revenues do not provide a sufficient income stream

Nearly a year after rolling out Google TV in the US, Google has confirmed plans to launch its ‘smart TV’ operating platform in Europe and the UK by early 2012

To date, Google TV in the US has been a disappointment, with little broadcaster support and, until recently, expensive devices, resulting in low adoption

The content issue is likely to dog Google TV, both here and in other European markets; access to key broadcaster TV and video programming will be a major challenge

In this report we present our latest analysis of the UK commercial radio sector. Impressive listening figures for the first half of 2011 should help commercial radio listening to increase by 3.2% in 2011, following a similar improvement last year. The advertising outlook is also promising: despite the retreat of the COI, we expect advertising revenues to grow by 3.0% in 2011, backed by a strong Q3. The shift towards branded networks should reduce operating costs and make it easier for advertisers to invest in radio, building on sales house consolidation in the late 2000s.

Advancing its free-to-air TV project, France’s Canal+ is to buy Bolloré TV’s national channels for €465 million to gain (scarce) licences for FTA terrestrial broadcast

Canal+ plans to leverage its library of original programming to attract upscale audiences, neglected by commercial rivals

However, the Vivendi investment case of a 9% return on capital is built on incompatible assumptions about profit margins and market share – to grow the latter in a mature market, a channel needs to sacrifice the former

This presentation details our assessment of the UK travel market to 2015, covering the package holiday, flight, accommodation and cruise sectors. UK consumer spending on holidays has been hit hard by the recession, but should bounce back as household finances recover, though the macro risk is still on the downside. We project that the internet will account for 60% of bookings by 2015, up from 45% in 2010, with growth fuelled by increased bargain hunting, as well as improving choice and functionality. Suppliers will continue to generate the lion’s share of internet sales, but online travel agents will take share, particularly for accommodation, which remains highly fragmented. New devices such as tablets and smartphones will increasingly be used to book and manage consumer travel, though the potential for incremental sales seems limited.